DO OLDER SMOKERS QUIT OR DIE?

Andreeva T.I.,

Alcohol and Drug Information Center (ADIC-Ukraine)

Introduction. Smoking prevalence can differ in age groups due to different levels of smoking initiation. It can also change by age due to smoking cessation and deaths. Epidemiological models predict ј of daily smokers die between ages 35 and 70 due to smoking related diseases.

Aim of the study was to estimate the influence of mortality and smoking cessation on the smoking prevalence in different age groups of Ukrainian men.

Material and Methods. Data of national representative surveys of the population of Ukraine on smoking of 2000 and 2001 was used.

Results. Male smoking prevalence is the largest in 29-39 years old group and then is lower in every next age group from 40 to 70 years old. The descending part of the curve after maximum level of smoking can represent loss of smokers due to death or quitting. Mathematic models very well describe the observed percentages of male smokers in 35-55 age groups. Lower observed percentage in 60-70 years old age group can derive from either
(i) lower levels of smoking initiation for those who were teenagers in 1950s or
(ii) their higher quit rates. The first hypothesis seems probable, as the group of never smokers in the 70+ years old age group is twice as large as in previous age groups. The second hypothesis can also be true as the proportion of quitters increases from 5.5% in 29-39 years old age group to 15% in 50-59 age group and 29-30% in 60+ age groups.

Conclusion. The decrease of smoking prevalence in male age groups after 35 years old is to comparable extent accounted for by smoking cessation and smoking related mortality.