4. Tobacco Consumption

It is very hard to estimate tobacco consumption in Ukraine because Ukrainian statistical bodies collected this data before 1994, and only in money terms. Since 1994, the statistical figures of tobacco sales are available, but they represent less than a half of the tobacco market. The so-called legal sale (production + Import - export) was also used to represent consumption (see Table 4). However the legal sale can much differ from the real cigarette consumption. It can be smaller than the real consumption (when smuggling TO the country is high, as it was in Ukraine in 1999-2000), and it can be higher than the real consumption (when smuggling FROM the country is high, as it was in Ukraine since 2003).

Table 4. Cigarette production, export and import in Ukraine according to the State Statistics Committee data (in billion pieces of cigarettes)

According to the Tobacco Reporter (July, 1996) “manufacturers estimate that Ukrainians consumed 60 to 65 billion pieces in 1995, including domestic production, import, and smuggled cigarettes.” According to «Ukrainian tobacco» Association estimates (submitted to the WHO), the overall market has declined from 80 billion cigarettes in 1990 to 65-70 billion cigarettes in 1999.  Later tobacco market started to grow and tobacco industry experts estimated the real consumption in 2004 on the level of 85-90 billion cigarettes (Business newspaper, 25/04/2005), while later other tobacco industry expert estimated total consumption in 2005 as 80 billion cigarettes (http://www.ukrtobacco.kiev.ua/news/zabor.php?nid=1233)

According to the national survey of June 2001 (see Chapter 3), the estimated level of tobacco consumption was 67.4 billion cigarettes.  The same method of calculation, but using the data of the national survey of June 2005 (see http://www.icps.com.ua/doc/Tobacco_in_Ukraine_ENG.pdf) revealed that in 2005 total consumption was 84 billion cigarettes.

We could reasonably suggest that the annual consumption of cigarettes in Ukraine was about 60-70 billion pieces in 1990s while in 2000s it increased to 80-90 billion cigarettes.

The proportion of non-filter cigarettes

Another issue is the estimation of non-filter cigarettes in the real market. In 1995-1997 about 40 billion non-filter cigarettes were produced in Ukraine annually. Some of them were exported, and there was almost no import or smuggling of non-filter cigarettes. Annual consumption was estimated on the level of 35-40 billion. The annual consumption of filter cigarettes was about 25-30 billion. So those years about 60% of cigarettes consumed in Ukraine were non-filter ones.

In year 1999, the consumption of filter cigarettes was estimated as 33 (production) + 3 (import) - 5 (export) + 3 (smuggling?) = 34 billion pieces. The consumption of non-filter cigarettes was estimated as 21 (production) + 10 (smuggling?) = 31 billion pieces. The proportion of non-filter cigarettes in 1999 could be estimated at 47%. Other experts gave the same proportion (while estimates of the market volume are different).

In 2000s despite the general increase of cigarette consumption, the proportion of consumed non-filter cigarettes was decreasing. In 2005 legal sale of non-filter cigarettes was:  14.4 (production) + 0.3 (import) - 0 (export) = 14,7 billion pieces. Some smuggling of non-filter cigarettes from Russia and Moldova was possible, so their consumption could be estimated as 15 billions. As general consumption of cigarettes in Ukraine was 84 billions (see above), it means that only 18% of cigarettes consumed in Ukraine in 2005 were non-filter ones.

According to the national survey of June, 2001 (see http://adic-ukraine.narod.ru/adic/reports/econ/ch-3/3-2.htm), 33% of smokers smoked cigarettes with a pack price of less than 1 UAH (that usually means non-filter cigarettes). In the national survey of June, 2005, 15.5% of respondents indicated that they smoke non-filter cigarettes. 

So if in 1990s non-filter cigarettes constituted more than 50% of general tobacco consumption, in 2005 their part became smaller than 20%.

Content 'Tobacco or Health in Ukraine. Economic issues, 2006 update'

Next