5. Tobacco expenditures of the population
We have tried to estimate population expenditures on legal tobacco products using the statistical data on prices and sales (Table 5). In 2001 the estimated expenditures were 6,329 million UAH or 1,178 million dollars. That year cigarette smuggling to and from Ukraine was almost equal in money terms, so the figures above are good estimation of real population spending on tobacco. In 2005 these expenditures (based on legal sales) were 12 billion UAH or 2.3 billion dollars. However, while legal sale was 116 billion cigarettes, real consumption was just 84 billions, which means that 32 billion cigarettes (predominantly filter ones) were first sold in Ukraine and then smuggled to the EU countries. Taking into account this fact the recalculation gives the following figures for 2005: 8,331 million UAH or 1,626 million dollars (See Table 5). Tobacco industry experts gave a close estimation of tobacco market in 2004: 7,5-8 billion UAH. So real population expenditures on tobacco in 2005 were just 70% of legal sale of cigarettes.
Table 5. Legal cigarette market estimations
|
Year |
Kind of cigarette |
Nominal prices (kopecks) |
Legal sale (billion cig-tes) |
Amount (million UAH) | Legal market amount
(million UAH) |
Total legal sale (billion cig-tes) | Average weighted price (kopeck per pack) | Excise tax revenue (incl. Pension fund) (million UAH) | Part of excise tax in legal market | Legal market (million USD) |
|
1999 |
filter |
117,08 |
28 |
1639,12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
non-filter |
76,33 |
20 |
763,3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Import |
244,08 |
3,4 |
414,936 |
2817,4 |
51,4 |
109,62 |
549,4 |
19,50 |
682,1 |
|
|
2000 |
filter |
142,33 |
39 |
2775,44 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
non-filter |
92,5 |
12,5 |
578,125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Import |
303,58 |
1,8 |
273,222 |
3626,8 |
53,3 |
136,09 |
574,6 |
15,84 |
666,6 |
|
| 2001 |
filter |
210 |
53,86 |
5655,30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
non-filter |
89,83 |
15 |
673,73 |
6329,03 |
68,86 |
183,82 |
726,1 |
11,47 |
1178,1 |
|
|
2002 |
filter |
206 |
61,85 |
6370,55 |
||||||
|
non-filter |
76,17 |
18,15 |
691,24 |
7061,79 |
80 |
176,54 |
861,9 |
12,21 |
1325,8 |
|
|
2003 |
filter |
212,8 |
75,55 |
8038,52 |
||||||
|
non-filter |
73,1 |
20,16 |
736,85 |
8775,37 |
95,71 |
183,37 |
1085 |
12,36 |
1645,6 |
|
|
2004 |
filter |
220 |
88,3 |
9713,00 |
||||||
|
non-filter |
72 |
17,2 |
619,20 |
10332,20 |
105,5 |
195,87 |
1427,2 |
13,81 |
1942,4 |
|
|
2005 |
filter |
224 |
101,9 |
11412,80 |
||||||
|
non-filter |
74,5 |
14,4 |
536,40 |
11949,20 |
116 |
206,02 |
1782 |
14,91 |
2331,7 |
|
|
2005* |
filter |
224 |
69,6 |
7795,20 |
||||||
|
non-filter |
74,5 |
14,4 |
536,40 |
8331,60 |
84 |
198,37 |
|
|
1625,8 |
* - estimates of market without smuggling of Ukrainian cigarettes to the EU countries.
Content 'Tobacco or Health in Ukraine. Economic issues, 2006 update'
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